1. Policy first, hydrogen energy up
During the "Thirteenth Five -Year Plan and Fourteen Five -Year Plan", the policy was frequently introduced to promote the accelerated development of hydrogen energy. During the two sessions in 2019, hydrogen energy was written into a government work report for the first time. In April 2020, hydrogen energy was written into the "Energy Law of the Chinese People's Republic of China (draft for comments)". In 2022, the Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration promulgated the "Long-term Plan for the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)", which clarified the strategic positioning, overall requirements and development goals of hydrogen energy in my country's energy green and low-carbon transformation. In 2023, the Development and Reform Commission released the "Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalog (2023, Draft for Soliciting Opinions)", which involved 11 aspects including the field of hydrogen energy and new energy. In August 2023, my country ’s first standard of construction of the hydrogen energy industry chain standard construction guide covers five sub -systems of foundation and safety, hydrogen preparation, hydrogen storage and transportation, hydrogen injection, and hydrogen energy. With the continuous increase of national policies, hydrogen energy will have long developed in my country.
According to the "Long-term Plan for the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)", by 2025, pilot demonstrations such as transportation, industry, energy storage, power generation and other fields will be developed steadily. /Year has become an important part of the new hydrogen energy consumption. By 2030, China will gradually build a relatively complete clean energy hydrogen -making and supply system to support the achievement of the strategic goals of carbon Dafeng. According to the "Top of the New Era of Green Hydrogen Energy: China's" Renewable Hydrogen 100 "Development Route Map of China in 2030" predicts that by 2030, the supply of renewable hydrogen will reach 7.7 million tons. "Considering the characteristics of regional economy and industrial application, The renewable hydrogen will be the first to be applied in the large -scale application of departments with high maturity in chemical, transportation, steel and other technical maturity.

2. Had hydrogen is currently the most important source of hydrogen

The main hydrogen -making methods include three categories: fossil fuel hydrogen, industrial by -production hydrogen production, and hydrogenation hydrogenation. Fossil fuel hydrogen production has a high maturity and low cost. It is mainly coal and natural gas hydrogen -making. The carbon dioxide gas such as carbon dioxide will be discharged during hydrogen -making. Industrial by -production hydrogen refers to the use of industrial tail gas containing hydrogen as the raw material, and recovers purified hydrogen by transformer adsorption (PSA method); because the raw materials are industrial by -products, there is no need for additional raw materials, so it has the characteristics of low cost. Electrolytic hydrogenation refers to the decomposition of water molecules into hydrogen and oxygen by DC power. The hydrogen purity (> 99%) produced is the most important green hydrogen production method in the future.
Most of the current hydrogen is "hydrogen". According to statistics from the China Hydrogen Energy Alliance, the output of hydrogen in China in 2022 reached 4.04 million tons. According to the statistics of the China Coal Industry Association, China ’s hydrogen -making in my country in 2021 is the most important way to make hydrogen -making, accounting for 62%of the total, and the hydrogen and natural hydrogen production of industrial by -industry account for 19%and 18%, respectively. Hydrogen comes from electrolytic water. Globally, according to IEA data statistics, the total global hydrogen output in 2021 was 94 million tons, of which 55%of natural gas hydrogen -making, 17%of coal -made hydrogen, 16%of industrial hydrogen produced, and hydrogen hydrogen. Dominant.


The production of off -hydrogen production is dominated by state -owned enterprises that master coal, petroleum, and natural gas resources, including Chinese Shenhua, Meijin Energy, Donghua Energy, PetroChina, Sinopec, etc. Sinopec is a leading position in my country's production capacity/output in the hydrogen energy industry and domestic hydrogen collection markets. With the strong strength of petrochemical industry, hydrogen capacity reaches 3.5 million tons/year; China Petroleum hydrogen capacity exceeds 2.6 million tons/year. Coal hydrogen is mainly concentrated in coal production areas such as Shanxi, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and natural gas and refining reorganization hydrogen -making are mostly distributed in large -scale petrochemical bases in Qingdao, Ningbo and other places.
The cost of raw materials for coal -made hydrogen and natural gas hydrogen accounts for more than 75%. The price fluctuation of raw materials has a greater impact on the cost of hydrogen control. Based on the price of coal of 800 yuan/ton, and the price of natural gas is 3 yuan/nm3 as the benchmark, when considering the impact of carbon sealing and carbon tax, the cost of coal -making and natural gas hydrogen -made from 10.8/14.7 yuan/kg to 15.6/kg, respectively to 15.6//kg 17.0 yuan/kg.

3. Potential production capacity of hydrogen production of industrial by -production exceeding 10 million tons

my country is the world's largest hydrogen producing country in the world, and it can provide 10 million tons of hydrogen supply each year. Compared with the northwest region with rich renewable energy sources, hydrogen producing hydrogen in industrial can cover the Beijing -Tianjin -Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong region, and matches the first region of hydrogen energy applications. At present, my country's coke furnace gas, chlorine -alkali chemical, propane dehydrogenation and other industries can provide 10 million tons of hydrogen supply each year. The hydrogen producing hydrogen can provide low -cost, distributed hydrogen sources in the early stage of the development of the hydrogen energy industry, which is beneficial to hydrogen, which is conducive to hydrogen. Can develop rapidly.
The potential production capacity of hydrogen produced in my country exceeds 10 million tons. 1) my country is the world's largest coke producer. The domestic coke output is about 440 million tons, accounting for 60%of the global output. Each produced 1T coke can produce 350-450 m3 of coke furnace gas. %, So the potential production capacity of coking by-production hydrogen reaches 100 billion m3.2) my country ’s chlor-alkaline industry roasted production is about 3,000-35 million tons, 1 tons of alkaline can produce hydrogen production of 208m3 per ton, and the peripheral hydrogen can reach 75-87 per year 10,000 tons. 3) The proportion of hydrogen in propylene dehydrogenation products accounts for 60%to 95%. At present, there are more than 10 domestic projects in China. It is estimated that by 2023, the hydrogen mass capacity of propane dehydrogenation can reach 370,000 T/A. 4) The proportion of hydrogen to ethyl hydrogen to ethylene to ethylene is more than 95%. For each ton of ethylene by -produced hydrogen, about 107kg of hydrogen produced, my country's ethylene production in 2021 is 28.25 million tons, and the potential hydrogen output is 3.03 million tons.

4. Electrolytic water -made hydrogen: Alkaline and PEM electrolytic grooves go hand in hand

The technology of electrolyte hydrogen mainly includes three technical routes: alkaline hydrolysis, proton membrane pure water electrolyte, and solid oxide electrolytic electrolytic. 1) The investment cost of alkaline electrolytic grooves is low, long life, large scale, but poor load performance and low current surface density. 2) PEM expresses balanced performance on various performance indicators and highlights the indicators. It is suitable for hydrogen making in various scenarios, including industrial hydrogen, portable hydrogen, and dynamic loads used as power grids, but the cost is high. 3) SOEC has high efficiency, good thermal loading performance of thermal machine, can work quickly and two -way, but requires high temperature heat sources, and has large equipment investment and short life. It is suitable for nuclear power hydrogen and large -scale thermal power connections.


Alkaline hydrolysis: Under the action of DC, water molecules occur at the two levels of electrolytic battles. The water molecules are restored at the cathode, generating hydrogen and hydroxide ions. The anode precipitates oxygen and generates oxygen and water. Proton membrane pure water electrolyte: Pure water enters the catalytic layer through the water inlet channel. Under the common action of DC power and catalyst, the anode produces oxygen and hydrogen ions. The hydrogen ion passes through the combination of proton switching membrane and cathode electrons to generate hydrogen. PEM electrolyte hydrogen -made hydrogen is high, and only a small amount of water vapor exists. After drying, it can be used directly for fuel cells. Solid oxide electrolytic: According to the differences in electrolyte loaders, it can be divided into oxygen ion conduction SOEC and proton conductive SOEC. At present, more research and more mature development are oxygen ion conduction SOEC. The core composition of the solid oxide electrolytic cell includes: electrolyte, anode and cathode. In the middle is a dense electrolyte layer, with porous hydrogen and oxygen electrodes on both sides. Take oxygen ion -conducting SOEC as an example. At a higher temperature (700-900 ° C), a certain DC voltage is applied to the electrodes of both sides of the SOEC. H2O is restored and decomposed in the cathode Solid oxide electrolytic layer reaches the anode and loses electron production O2. At present, the development of alkaline electrolyte hydrogen -based hydrogen is the most mature and has been fully commercialized. Proton exchange membrane electrolytic watermark hydrogen is in the early days of commercialization, while solid oxide electrolyte hydrogen is still in the stage of research and development and demonstration.
Electrolytic grooves are the core equipment of electrolyte hydrogen. At this stage, most companies focus on alkaline electrolytic grooves. According to the high worker hydrogen energy, as of the first half of 2023, the total production capacity of China's electrolytic grooves exceeded 14GW, of which about 94%of the alkaline electrolytes accounted for about 94%, and the PEM electrolytic slot was about 6%. Most of the alkaline electrolyte capacity of single manufacturers is between 0.5-1.5GW, and the industry pattern is relatively scattered.
Most of the current hydrogen-making capacity of single grooves is 1000-2000nm3 /h. In 2022, the alkaline electrolysis slot of the 2000 NM3 /H of 718 China Shipping was offline. In September 2023, Longji can refresh the maximum single alkaline electrolyte hydrogen producing hydrogen production, reaching 3000NM3 /h.

4.1. Alkaline electrolytic slot

The core components of the electrolytic groove include pole, pole frames, diaphragm, electrodes, and BOP auxiliary systems. The pole frame is the support component of the electrolytic groove, which is used to support the electrode and diaphragm, which is mainly made of cast iron metal plate or non -rust steel plate. The diaphragm is to prevent hydrogen and oxygen from mixing, but allows polybenzene -sulfonal fabrics (PPS) with ions in the groove. The electrode determines the efficiency of electrolytic grooveded hydrogen. It is a venue for electrochemical reactions. It is mainly composed of nickel mesh and foam nickel. BOP systems mainly include power supply systems, control systems, gas liquid separation systems, purification systems, alkaline liquid systems, hydration systems, cooling drying systems and other subsidiaries.
The film/electrode component is the highest proportion of cost in electric heap components. In the electrolytic groove system, the cost of electrical pile components accounted for 45%, and the cost of film/electrode component accounted for 57%.



The improvement of system performance and hydrogen production will help the cost of mounting hydrogen. In Irena's prediction, although the system reduction space of alkaline electrolytes is not large, the current cost of the electrolytic system is 1500 yuan/kW, and the system cost in the future is 1400 yuan/kW. In terms of renewable energy adaptation, the alkaline electrolytic grooves still have much room for improvement. The current focusing on the direction of the research is concentrated in the electrode, catalyst, and diaphragm.
The cost of alkaline electrolytic groove hydrogen is still 63.1%of cost reduction space. 1000NM3 /H electrolytic slot and civil construction equipment are constructed at 8 million yuan and 1.5 million yuan, respectively. The depreciation period is 10 (15) years and 20 years, respectively. The cost is 2.62 yuan/nm3, and when the electricity price is 0.2 yuan/kWh, and the annual working time is 6000H, the unit of hydrogen production is 0.97 yuan/NM3. The decline in power consumption costs, increased single hydrogen production, and increased power consumption and fixed costs brought by increased lives will reach 78.0%and 79.5%, respectively, and the cost of hydrogen production from the unit from 2.62 yuan/NM3 will be reduced to 0.97 yuan/NM3. , Decreased by 63.1%.

4.2. PEM electrolytic slot

From 2021 to the present, the PEM electrolytic tank bidding volume has exceeded 82.5MW. At present, the domestic high -power PEM electrolytic hydrogenation equipment is in the initial stage of development. At present, it has been distributed or won the bidding projects. Energy, Saikes, Conominus, Shanghai Hydrogen Sheng, Changchun Green and so on. From the perspective of the PEM electrolytic slot installation/bidding volume known from 2021, domestic PEM hydrogen -making equipment has jumped from 1MW to 50MW, and gradually large -scale industrial applications have exceeded 82.5MW.
The PEM electrolytic slot is developing in the direction of large standards and low energy consumption. At present, most of the hydrogen production of PEM electrolytic grooves is more than 200nm3/h, and the current density is between 1-2.5A/CM2 and the energy consumption is about 4.3kWh/m3. In the future, the hydrogen production of PEM electrolytic grooves is developing towards 300nm3/h or more. The current density and energy consumption are moving towards the direction of 1.5-3 A/CM2 and 3.5-4.0kWh/NM3, respectively.



The bottleneck link of PEM hydrolysis hydrogen is cost and life. The PEM electrolytic slot needs to run in a strong acid and high -oxidation working environment, relying on expensive precious metal materials such as platinum, etc., resulting in too much cost. In the past three years, the price of platinum has been maintained at about 250 yuan/g, and the price of crickets remains at about 1100 yuan/g. The scarcity of precious metals will cause the price to continue to be strong. The PT load of the existing commercial hydrogen analysis is 0.4 ~ 0.6mg/cm2, and the IR load is between 1 ~ 2mg/cm2. And reducing the amount of catalysts or seeking alternatives, improving the efficiency and life of electrolytic grooves is the research focus of PEM hydroceleing and hydrogen. 50%, significantly reduced the amount of tadpoles. PEM electrolytic groove cost reduction space is large. At present, PEM's technical iteration path mainly includes increasing current density, increasing electrode plate area, reducing membrane thickness, and optimizing design catalysts. According to Irena's forecast, the minimum investment cost of technological progress overlaying a large -scale mass -produced PEM electrolytic slot is expected to be reduced from $ 400/kW to less than $ 100/kW, a decrease of more than 75%.
The cost of long -term PEM electrolytic grooves decreased by about 73.8%compared with the present stage. At present, the 1000NM3 /H PEM electrolytic slot is about 30 million yuan, and it is expected to reach 7 million yuan in the future with the localization of key components and the production reduction of electrolytic grooves. According to the "Analysis of the Cost of the Hydrogen Made of Electrolytic Water", the civil construction and installation of 2 million yuan, depreciated for 20 years. At this stage and the long -term target electrolyte equipment of the electrolytes of 20,000 and 90,000 hours, the unit energy consumption is 4.5 and 3.8 kWh// 3.8 kWh/ respectively. NM3, electricity prices are 0.4 and 0.2 yuan/kWh, respectively, and the cost of hydrogen -making reaches 3.56 and 0.93 yuan/nm3, respectively, and a decrease of 73.8%. Among them, the average assets and the decline in power consumption costs decreased by 94.2%and 57.8%, respectively.

5. The cost of green hydrogen is gradually approaching the cost of preparation of hydrogen hydrogen

Fossil fuel hydrogen production materials have a greater impact on the cost of hydrogen -making, and the hydrogen producing hydrogen in the industry is large due to the difference in raw materials. The cost of raw materials in the cost structure of fossil fuel hydrogen accounts for about 75%, and the price fluctuation of raw materials has a greater impact on the cost of hydrogen control. When the price of coal is 200 and 1,000 yuan/ton, the corresponding coal -to -hydrogen costs are 6.77 and 12.14 yuan/kg; when the price of natural gas is 1 and 5 yuan/nm3, the corresponding cost of natural gas hydrogen making is 7.2 and 22.1, respectively. Yuan/KG. There are large differences in industrial by -produced hydrogen due to the differences in industrial by -products. Among them, the cost of coke furnace gas by -produced hydrogen is relatively low, about 14 yuan/kg, and the cost of synthetic ammonia synthetic methanol hydrogen is higher. 22 yuan/kg.
Green hydrogen preparation and downshow are large. In the long -term perspective, the cost of hydrogen -making and PEM electrolytic groove hydrogen -making costs reached 63.1%and 73.8%, respectively. The reduction of the cost of alkaline electrolytic groove hydrogen -based hydrogen mainly benefits from the decline in operating costs brought by power consumption and electricity prices, and the average amount of assets of fixed assets brought by the extension of life expectancy decreased, and the decline in the two reached 78.0%and 79.5%, respectively. The reduction in the cost of PEM electrolytic groove hydrogen -based hydrogen mainly benefits from the decline in electricity prices, as well as the decline in the decline in equipment costs brought about by domesticization replacement. In the long run, the cost of greening and hydrogen is equivalent to the high hydrogen. When the electricity price is 0.4 yuan/kWh and the running life is 20,000 hours, the cost of hydrogen production of alkaline electrolytic grooves is 29.7 yuan/kg, and when the electricity price is 0.2 yuan/kWh, the operating life is 90,000 hours, the alkaline electrolyte slot is The cost of hydrogen making is 10.8 yuan/kg. When the electricity price is 0.4 yuan/kWh and the service life is 50,000 hours, the cost of hydrogen by PEM electrolytes is 40.0 yuan/kg, and when the electricity price is 0.2 yuan/kWh, the operating life is 90,000 hours, the PEM electrolytic groove hydrogen -made hydrogen -made The cost is 10.5 yuan/kg.